Heidelberg Stock Price

[Erik Nikkanen]

Gordon, yikes is right.

Today Heidelberg closed at 1.39 Euro, the lowest in a year.


:-)

Today 1.26 Euro.


Even I am getting a bit surprised it is going so low. The market is the final judge on companies and in the end what one might think as an individual does not really matter.

[chevalier]

Erik - it seems like you are picking on HDM in particular. Stop and think about the thousands of people whose livelihoods depend upon that company - this isn't just gossip banter or a laughing matter.

Among the larger "iron" press manufacturers over the past 5 years in share value...
Heidelberg has lost >95% (Current Market Capital ~$400m)
KBA has lost >45% (Current Market Capital ~$288m)
Komori has lost >80% (Current Market Capital ~$420m)
manroland is privately held.

We all know that the markets are very unhealthy on the whole but it seems like our industry in particular is going through a paradigm technological shift coupled with a glut of excess capacity. Woe to those with retirement investments tied up here.

[Erik Nikkanen]

Erik - it seems like you are picking on HDM in particular. Stop and think about the thousands of people whose livelihoods depend upon that company - this isn't just gossip banter or a laughing matter.

Among the larger "iron" press manufacturers over the past 5 years in share value...
Heidelberg has lost >95% (Current Market Capital ~$400m)
KBA has lost >45% (Current Market Capital ~$288m)
Komori has lost >80% (Current Market Capital ~$420m)
manroland is privately held.

We all know that overall the markets are very unhealthy on the whole but it seems like our industry in particular is going through a paradigm technological shift coupled with a glut of excess capacity. Woe to those with retirement investments tied up here.

Not picking on Heidelberg in particular. I have only been following their stock price via their site because it was so easy to see their chart.

Thanks for the added info on the other manufacturers. I did not know specifically how bad things were for them also. It is not a laughing matter. It is very sad.

My view has been that nothing will help all press manufacturers since it is a shrinking market. In this situation, survival and even prosperity can only be obtained if a manufacturer can advance the technology. More performance for less cost.

Are you able to help them out with that problem?

Well I am. My only interest is in advancing the technology with low cost solutions based on advanced knowledge. That can only happen if the manufacturer wants that type of help.

From your data it looks like Heidelberg would need the most help but the chances of them asking for help is not high. Each press manufacturer is responsible for the futures of their people and shareholders etc. It is up to the press manufacturers to protect them and yes it is a very serious situation and a sad one. I did not cause this condition but could help some press manufacturers but all manufacturers will not be around in the future doing the same thing.

[chevalier]

The problem is unimaginably larger than technology in the printing industry.

Technological advancements cannot solve the current problems of excess capacity unless the advancement itself causes a dramatic rise in demand. The problem is not a lack of supply - it is a lack of demand and this is the case globally.

Trade imbalances are central in blame and the solutions aren't really palatable to anyone - yet. Right now the whole thing is playing out in slow-motion as our economic overlords (Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Chinese Central Bank, etc.) are restraining the invisible hand from smashing the whole system to bits. We've really never tried this restraining procedure let alone on a globalized scale. We are really pushing into a new dimension economically. This is why the central bankers and powers-to-be are slapping a band-aid on every problem rather than addressing the actual disease.

Right now the choice seems to be economic anemia, economic ebola or trade war which potentially could become bullets and bombs war. Mind you that a brief glimpse of history will show that these problems have been typically solved by warfare. More optimistically this is not a zero sum game.

[Erik Nikkanen]

The problem is unimaginably larger than technology in the printing industry.

Technological advancements cannot solve the current problems of excess capacity unless the advancement itself causes a dramatic rise in demand. The problem is not a lack of supply - it is a lack of demand and this is the case globally.

Trade imbalances are central in blame and the solutions aren't really palatable to anyone - yet. Right now the whole thing is playing out in slow-motion as our economic overlords (Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Chinese Central Bank, etc.) are restraining the invisible hand from smashing the whole system to bits. We've really never tried this restraining procedure let alone on a globalized scale. We are really pushing into a new dimension economically. This is why the central bankers and powers-to-be are slapping a band-aid on every problem rather than addressing the actual disease.

Right now the choice seems to be economic anemia, economic ebola or trade war which potentially could become bullets and bombs war. Mind you that a brief glimpse of history will show that these problems have been typically solved by warfare. More optimistically this is not a zero sum game.

The problem in the printing industry is that there are too many printers and too many press manufacturers for a market that does not want print as much as it did.

And I am sorry to tell you but better technology or business models that leads to a sustainable competitive advantage is the only way forward. It works in good times and in bad times. It is about rewarding the few that innovate and punishing those who can not.

The market judges companies. Good ones, like Apple are rewarded while other companies that can not innovate are viewed as being less valuable and are punished.

I find it very strange that you go off in a direction of global economics and potential warfare when the topic was regarding the stock value of a press manufacturer which is related to its perceived future potential.

[chevalier]

The problem in the printing industry is that there are too many printers and too many press manufacturers for a market that does not want print as much as it did.

This is excess supply...

And I am sorry to tell you but better technology or business models that leads to a sustainable competitive advantage is the only way forward. It works in good times and in bad times. It is about rewarding the few that innovate and punishing those who can not.

The market judges companies. Good ones, like Apple are rewarded while other companies that can not innovate are viewed as being less valuable and are punished.

In turbulent times like these the guy who can hold out the longest with his stack of cash may outlast the technological innovator and/or buy him.

I find it very strange that you go off in a direction of global economics and potential warfare when the topic was regarding the stock value of a press manufacturer which is related to its perceived future potential.

10,000 ft perspective vs. 10,000 mile perspective - We do not live in "normal" times right now

[Erik Nikkanen]

In turbulent times like these the guy who can hold out the longest with his stack of cash may outlast the technological innovator and/or buy him.

Sure. lots of cash helps. For some strange reason, I tend to think that companies that have a lot of cash were in some way successful at selling their products.

Yes, I would agree that innovative start up companies might not have a lot of cash at some point in time and can be bought. Actually many want to be bought. When a small innovative company gets bought, that is the payoff for their innovation. You make it sound like it is a failure.

Of course Heidelberg and the others are not small innovators. Who would buy them out? Maybe the price is getting to the right level but I suspect every press manufacturer wants the others to die. Killing off the competition would help with better products that perform better and cost less.

[Erik Nikkanen]

Just noticed, now at 1.14 Euro. No help from Drupa.

Hopefully just a bad day.

[gordo]

Just noticed, now at 1.14 Euro. No help from Drupa.

Hopefully just a bad day.

Ditto for Agfa at $1.27 and Kodak at 0.17

Best gordo

[Erik Nikkanen]

Ditto for Agfa at $1.27 and Kodak at 0.17

Best gordo

And HP laying off 27,000 people. That's a lot of people.

RIM, Nokia, Sony also not doing so well. Digital is not a sure thing to success.
There is no guarantee of stability. Oh maybe in waste disposal companies.

In business nothing has really changed. To succeed, companies must supply services and products that customers want and that is done by innovation.