Is iPad the print publishing killler we been waiting for?

[WiseGuy]

Guys... Please don't BBQ me.... those of you who know me, know how much I love this industry. I know we all love print. We're in the industry and it's in our blood and under our finger nails.

But, personal preferences aside, like photography, music and movies – most books, newspapers and magazines and periodicals will go digital. Not all digital, but primarily. It's going to happen. The publishers want it. They don't want to print books when they can distribute them digitally. Printing costs money. Inventory costs money. They will push this. They will help drive the trend.

And as the devices go, they are pretty cool today and you can bet they will be 10x cooler in 5-10 years. And as us old die-hards move on and the new digital generation of kids grow up, they will not adapt this technology to replace reading books, it will be all they know. It will be a core part of their generation and soon book stores will go the way of music stores and film stores.

But does that mean the end of print and commercial printing? Probably not. But it's changing. Changing quickly too. Just think about how many print processes have gone away in the past few years?

I use to work for Moore Corp... remember them??? Moore Business Forms? Well, business forms died a quick death in the 90's. Moore also did the printed version of Publishers Clearing House. They were one of our biggest clients. Guess what.... all online now. Why? COSTS! They can annoy you to no end much cheaper on-line than mailing out millions of complex mailers everyday. Those mailers cost money! Mailing cost money! Digital is penny's of the cost.

How many people opt in for getting their bills electronic? Notice... some companies give you an incentive now to go electronic billing. Why? COSTS! They don't want to print!

Why are newspapers failing? Not because I don't enjoy the paper. I'm 47 and love reading the paper. It's because the 20-30 somethings don't want it. They get their news on-line. So... lower subscriptions, lower circulation... advertisers start pulling out. Not to mention the economy keeping the advertisers away... and the fact of why on heavens Earth would you buy a classified right now? Craigslist is free and you have better exposure. I use to put ads in the paper to rent properties at $50 a crack.... now I use Craigslist and I get people coming in from out of state. Cost $0.

Do I need to go on? Again.... I love print. I love this industry. But lets not be blind too. It's changing and these new digital devices are going to erode print.

So instead of asking, will the iPad kill print? We should assume "yes" and ask "then what will we print next? Or how do we make it better? Different" Fill a niche?"

A FINAL NOTE OF WISDOM:
I forget who said this, but it was one of the Railroad tycoons that saw the demise of the train as the primary mode of commercial transportation.... but their statement was "We can't think of ourselves as in the Railroad business if we're going to survive. We're in the transportation business". Again, can't remember the source, but I know it was from a Harvard Business Review.... anyway.... so... what business are you in? Printing? or ????????

Now back to your regularly scheduled press run.

 

[nickpol]

Interesting discussion. (Hi, i'm new to the forum and the industry)

Of course there's a lot of personal involvement in this discussion; printing puts food on the table. I'm not a printer, I'm an industrial design student with an interest in the industry (in fact, I'm currently graduating on developing a new product/service for this market).

I don't think there's "a lot" to worry about for now... but, that's quite logical isn't it? Things like this need time to get used to. Sure people say right now that they'll miss the feel and smell of paper. But, as some have already mentioned during this discussion, when will the benefits of digital become greater than the feel/smell/etc of paper books and magazines. Looking at the Wired app; i'd take that any day over the crappiness (not a word probably) of their thin papered magazine. And the same goes for a lot of magazines I think. How about a car mag in which I can see the car drive, the interior, cool features, etc. Or a furniture mag in which i can re-arrange the interior... a beauty mag in which I (well, my girlfriend) can combine different pieces of clothing... Will we still say; I'd rather have the plain, more expensive, paper version? I don't think so...

Books might be a different story though, at least from my own experience, I think it's a more personal/emotional product. We like to hold on to books, keep them on a shelf, even though there's a 95% chance we'll never read them again. But, the magazine more often than not ends up in the paper recycling bin.

Anyway, in the long run, 5...10...maybe 20 years from now a lot will have changed, and probably not for the benefit of paper and printing. Today we all focus on the E-readers, the kindles and iPads of the world. But it's very unrealistic to assume "everyone" will own one of these for all their reading; they're just to useless for that... it's not something you "need". Even though they are already taking over small parts of the market bit by bit.

But what will the effect be on the laptop and desktop computers... do we think we'll still have those in 10 years in the format as they are now? How will they change over the next couple of years and how will that affect the market. If we can read more easily on an Ereader, why not a laptop in 5 years? About 60% (just a guess) of the worlds population has a computer/access to a computer, in the world? What if we start reading on those, because in 10 years from now they're lighter/smaller and more practicle than a book?

It's not just the E-readers, that's just short term. Everything's changing.

 

[maas]

I can see the Ipad having an impact on publisher sector whose titles cater to the 18 to 35 year old demographic, this age group utelise digital communication in everyday life and are web savvy, and therefore may see a magazine app as an better alternative to a tactile copy hence a drop in print requirements.

But like radio still manages to hold its own in the television age and television will endure streaming media magazines and print media will not be replaced by the Ipad.

 

[gordo]

I can see the Ipad having an impact on publisher sector whose titles cater to the 18 to 35 year old demographic, this age group utelise digital communication in everyday life and are web savvy, and therefore may see a magazine app as an better alternative to a tactile copy hence a drop in print requirements.

Grrrrrrrr.....hate ageism.

Gordon p (60+)

 

[Tech]

After watching another Steve Jobs's sales pitch for iphone 4 [http://events.apple.com.edgesuite.net/1006ad9g4hjk/event/index.html], you just know he is serious about getting Apple's mobile products into everyone's pockets. The more Apple is able to get these products out, the more compelling it will be for publishers to pursue the ebook/ezine. If they can cut cost while exploring a different source of income, and be successful, the rest will follow like hungry wolves.

I'm very curious to see if they can get iAds to work in ebooks/ezines. Imagine publishers getting ad revenue again simply by agreeing to allow iAds in their products? That income on top of selling ebooks/ezines? It might feel like they never left print version.

 

[WiseGuy]

I'm very curious to see if they can get iAds to work in ebooks/ezines. Imagine publishers getting ad revenue again simply by agreeing to allow iAds in their products? That income on top of selling ebooks/ezines? It might feel like they never left print version.

I get the impression you think publishers will make less money with E-books / digital distribution? I think it's just the opposite. Cost of goods is almost $0... distribution costs is almost $0 and they can reach millions of customers right in their living room. The Ad revenue I think will be their icing on top of the cake. E-publishing is not the death of publishers.... it will help the good ones thrive. But still, not good for print.

 

[Tech]

Nope, I'm simply saying publishers will be getting extra $$$ via iAd for putting out ebooks/ezines if they choose to explore that option and see if their readers will take the bait. That said, I wouldn't assume $0 cost with ebook production. IMHO, eBooks/ezines will actually require higher skill staff and not button pushers. epub as one of the widely accepted open source standard may seem like clean text, but once you start creating interactive contents then it's a whole new ball game.

 

[WiseGuy]

Nope, I'm simply saying publishers will be getting extra $$$ via iAd for putting out ebooks/ezines if they choose to explore that option and see if their readers will take the bait. That said, I wouldn't assume $0 cost with ebook production. IMHO, eBooks/ezines will actually require higher skill staff and not button pushers. epub as one of the widely accepted open source standard may seem like clean text, but once you start creating interactive contents then it's a whole new ball game.

You are 100% right about the change in the skills and technology required to produce the eBooks/eZines. As the media matures, the audience is going to want more and more. More interactivity. More video, more links, more... more.... more... more. Think of it like Video games. Started off as fairly simple media, then came Myst that turned it into a story and an adventure with (at the time) stunning visuals. Then it went onto more interaction. More stories, and now most video games are a major production with actors, musical scores, voice over talent, art and more.

Good thought.... and I do think advertising will be additional revenue. Makes sense.

 

[nickpol]

The trouble for publishers is obviously smaller. But what about the printers? How do you see this change in the following years?

 

[macdudeken]

"About 60% (just a guess) of the worlds population has a computer/access to a computer, in the world?"

more like TWELVE percent of the world's population has access to a computer.

Printers will continue to scale back and the ones who find their niche will continue in business. The biggest issue in the near future is the outsourcing of printed material to China, etc...

 

[Mark H]

more like TWELVE percent of the world's population has access to a computer.

Printers will continue to scale back and the ones who find their niche will continue in business. The biggest issue in the near future is the outsourcing of printed material to China, etc...

There are 6.8 billion people on the plant and just over 1 billion personal computers (about 25% of which are in the US). That makes it about 17% for accessibility. However, this number is meaningless. The comparison really is in how many people will swap paper for electronic presentation, making the argument more about who is buying the paper communication to begin with.

For example, you might say that there are 1 billion people in India who do NOT have access to a computer. However, if I'm looking at who might buy an electronic version of Sports Illustrated vs the paper version that demographic wont matter to me since they're not buying the paper version either.

I find your question concerning the outsourcing of the actual printing offshore of great interest. All of my work is print-and-mail, so having my invoice printed offshore and mailed from Pakistan is not of interest to me or my customers. For my commercial work, I can't see sending an order for 500, or even 10,000 business cards to Jakarta. Again, customer demand fast turnaround and low price. Can lower production costs really absorb the shipping fee for all that weight? Perhaps for large quantity point-of-sale, or large/complex 3D builds?

Mark H