#!@*&% $#*! PAPER

[IgnoreThem]

What's everyones guess on how much longer before inventory levels start improving....

 

[PricelineNegotiator]

Is it important to think about how long after the shut downs happened that we started to see supply issues? If that time was ~1.5 years from start of COVID, perhaps that is the minimum time for recovery from the peak of supply disruption.

 

[ReproElectroProspero]

I think this greatly depends on where you live. Seems West Coast US is doing okay with minor shortage issues, East Coast US is worse off, and Europe is having a hell of a time because they have every problem we have, plus paper mill strikes and ukraine disruptions.

 

[TJPrinter]

The best way to answer this question is the same way we answered how long it would take after the 2008 crash to get back to normal. We won’t.

The paper industry has changed permanently and mills are going to continue to covert from paper to board for packaging. I think availability of commodity items will certainly improve but there’s no way I’ll go back to ordering paper like I did before. We’ll probably all need to keep more paper on hand than we did previously and get used to telling customers that the fine writing paper or specialty stock they want isn’t available or it’s going to take months to get.

It will be interesting to see to how the mills respond when they see how much the paper market can bear for paper price increases.

 

[gregbatch]

A paper rep said we're looking at Q1 2024 for the supply issues to resolve. However, I don't expect to see any relief on price. We may see stability, but we'll never go back.

 

[warlegs]

A paper rep said we're looking at Q1 2024 for the supply issues to resolve. However, I don't expect to see any relief on price. We may see stability, but we'll never go back.

Well, we'll be long gone by then if that's the case. Guess I better tighten up that resume now lol

 

[gregbatch]

Well, we'll be long gone by then if that's the case. Guess I better tighten up that resume now lol

Mind you, that is "resolved" - back to normal. There will be improvements along the way. The little fish will suffer. Some won't make it. I'm already seeing a big boom in consolidation. The big fish are and always will get their paper. The smaller you are, the worse off you will be. The paper companies are willing to sacrifice smaller accounts to keep big ones. They will likely get it back through consolidation.

Smaller paper companies may not survive either. The big companies are on a buying spree.

We have 2 digital machine leases expiring in 2 months. The latest and greatest does no good if you have nothing to run through them. We are faced with staying with what we have month-to-month, or dropping them completely. One is nearly impossible to get toner and parts for. It is not our core business, but we were planning expansion of that profit center, including bringing in inkjet.

 

[gregbatch]

My latest email on Friday said to expect 6-8% quarterly increases. Some of our clients produce advertiser supported publications, many with annual advertising contracts. They are getting close to operating in the red as prices increase.