Follow-up poll, Did the economy actually improve in 2009?

[otherthoughts]

The results of a poll taken at this forum early this year (2009), indicated that 52.17% of those who voted in the poll, felt that the economy would improve,

Early poll results here.
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Being that the bulk of 2009 is now a matter of hind-sight. I am curious as to how the forum feels the 2009 economy actually resulted?

 

[Luc St-Pierre]

One of our famous songwriter here in Quebec wrote this (the translation is mine): Because of the actual economy crisis, please be advised that the light at the end of the tunnel will remain closed until further notice.

 

[ondemandbindery]

Maybe globally things are not as they seem in here in the states printing is on the decline. For the company's that are making it they are doing very well but for the ones who are just trying to stay afloat and weather the recession I am not sure about their future. I want to be as upbeat as the next guy about the Printing Industry but this is the reality of it. Unless you have found some niche in which any smart person in this busines would not be talking about my advice is really evaluate everything internally and externally and maybe no count on printing coming back as it was before the bottom fell out of Wall Street.

 

[rbailleu]

boy did I miss my prediction. I push the whole thing back 12 months. by july things will be better.

 

[rbailleu]

In an attempt to understand the vote I have the followng question: for those that voted the economy improved, Is that your personal economy, your local economy or the national economy?

 

[kansasquaker]

It's hard to say the economy has improved in 2009. 3rd quarter US GDP was positive, but when you subtract the increase in auto sales (due wholly to cash for clunkers - which will decrease 4th quarter GDP) growth was a tepid 1.5%. I'd be surprised if 4th quarter growth is over 1%. Maybe a more interesting poll would be "how much have your printing prices declined in 2009?"

 

[rbailleu]

gdp also includes the additional 30% of the 900billion stimulus plan so that 1.5% may well be lower.
another basis for judgement might be the unemployment numbers which just hit 10.2% with underemployed and people that just gave up pushing the the numbers close to 18% and congress voting to add another 10 to 20 weeks of unemployment. also adding to gdp without accounting for the debt involved.
on a side note I got a bit of eduction on gdp looking up the numbers. did you know they include something called inputations in gdp. these include alot of unvalued assets such as service of owner occupied housing and financial inputed interest. so becuase the housing sales went up do to the $8000 first time home owners tax credit. there is an inputed increase in gdp. this will more than likely end in Q4. its interesting that housing is the biggest portion of inputed interest.

My opinion is its worse. it cant help but get better next year.

 

[ondemandbindery]

It's hard to say the economy has improved in 2009. 3rd quarter US GDP was positive, but when you subtract the increase in auto sales (due wholly to cash for clunkers - which will decrease 4th quarter GDP) growth was a tepid 1.5%. I'd be surprised if 4th quarter growth is over 1%. Maybe a more interesting poll would be "how much have your printing prices declined in 2009?"

To me this is as important as the gross sales. In fact, this is more important in the grand scheme of things. Printing has turned into too much of a comodity and the pricing of it makes no sense. I struggle with the finishing end of it constantly. Not only do I get pinned against the wall on scheduling but also Printers try to justify their profit margins to themselves by beating up on finishers like myself. This is the case way too often. The theory of estimating practices like this may favor the person who puts ink on paper right now but it is my opinion that as printing shrinks in the US there may be growth in the finishing side of the business because shops may no longer have the capacity to keep a good head count in their own Bindery. And that is all relative to both of these questions. I could have easily blown my projected gross sales out of the water for the year but the profitability number would have been marginal and that my friends is where there is a big problem in printing right now. A wise person told me a last year to not be Tired and Hungry at the same time. The numbers that are given to me by someone who does this type of research for a very large Offset Printer is looking at a 5% decline in printing each year over the next 10 years and maybe around 2020 we may see this industry leveling off. That doesnt mean the profit margins have to go to the wayside with all this but I think at this point in the game their is really no way to slow down decaying of this industry. We are not the only industry facing this. We are just getting hammered from a recession, globally bad politics, and a new generation that wants it now and they want it via electronic generating.

 

[Servicetech]

I would say NO way did it get better, it got worse. After 20 years in the printing industry I have finally given up on it and accepted a good position outside the industry.